Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Liberalism versus populism

It is 2022 and I'm convinced that the US has now entered one of the most dangerous phases in its history. Don't think this is hyperbole and will try and justify this below. If all goes well, we will probably look back to 02/24/22 - the onset of the Ukraine war - as the turning point where a robust new liberalism seized back the initiative from the forces of oligarchy, plutocracy etc. worldwide. But this is not a given: the next few years will be gut wrenching if this transformation is to occur.

What has to die is the neoliberal economic order of the past 40 years. We have already mentioned the reasons why this order is going kaput but two excellent recent books - The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order (by Gary Gerstle) and Liberalism and its Discontents (by Francis Fukuyama no less) - have considerably clarified the picture. Both books argue that the neoliberal order of the past 40 years is dead and that we must pave the way for a new economic order. Otherwise populist forces of the right and left will usher in oligarchic forces which will install a strongman, game the population and turn every intellectual into a bitter cynic. It will be game over if that happens, not just for America but for the world. Adapted from Gary Gerstle:

"A political order must have the ability to shape the core ideas of political life......The neoliberal order persuaded a large majority of Americans that free markets would unleash capitalism from unnecessary state controls and spread prosperity and freedom throughout the ranks of Americans...[Instead] political disorder and dysfunction reign. What comes next is the most important question the United States, and the world, now face.

Clearly then, the US central bank will be, er, central to the efforts aimed at ushering in the new order. But, this can only happen if there is a crisis and I believe we are hurtling toward such a crisis which will peak within the next few years. The crisis will probably involve the status of the US dollar as the world's premier reserve currency and just like Bretton-Woods was necessary in 1944, we might need to install a new financial order in 2022-2026. Since the US is a forward looking country, it could be something completely unexpected and new like the adoption of a crypto currency with communities worldwide being enabled by tethering to the US neodollar. Or something else.

Setting aside these speculations, what are the implications from a consciousness studies perspective? To put it simply, I think the coastal elite have to become the new conservatives and broadcast messages of inclusion to the entire country. The US has to secure the foundations of a new order which will treat everyone equally (thereby taking the wind out of identity politics of all stripes) while maintaining the social gains of the past 80 years (which saw all kinds of marginalized people enter the mainstream). To achieve this, the baby boomers and millennial followers (sorry Gen-X) have to keep repeating that we are all in this together and that democracy itself might be at stake (in the world's oldest democracy). The formerly radical boomers - the most narcissistic generation ever produced by America - should now strengthen institutions and ward off attacks by the populists (who are now the new radicals). We have to become the new conservatives if America is to hold together.